The Army does not need three bases in Alaska for a single brigade, especially since housing and operational costs are high. Therefore, Fort Richardson should be closed.

That's according to Carlton Meyer, a military analyst and retired Marine colonel.

Meyer runs an online military and warfare research group called G2mil. He recently published a list of recommendations regarding the in-progress Base Realignment and Closure Commission investigation, a U.S. Congress-directed project to determine which military bases will be shut down. The Department of Defense plans to cut 25 percent of its military bases by 2005.

The BRAC process - in its initial fact-finding stage - works like this: First the DOD will take recommendations from each service on which bases they could do without or ones that should be re-structured. The BRAC commission will then take those recommendations as well as information from economic and military research groups and create its own list. That list goes to President Bush in March 2005. Bush has 45 days to accept or reject the recommendations. Once he renders his decision, those bases on the list will close.

The 70-acre Fort Richardson employs 1,977 active duty personnel and 2,820 family members - many of whom reside in Chugiak-Eagle River. The fort has a total payroll of more than $330 million.

Meyer's recommendation was featured this month at Military.com, an online military news service, as an unsolicited opinion on the matter. His independent G2mil list included 18 other recommended Army base closures.

According to former state Joint Armed Services Committee member George Vakalis, Meyer's opinions and others' could carry weight come decision time.

"It's happened before," said Vakalis, a former Garrison Commander for U.S. Army Alaska who has been through all four BRACS in Alaska. "In 1989, Fort Rich wasn't on the list, but then showed up on the list at the last minute. We were all shocked."

Vakalis said opinions such as Meyer's can affect the process, and that his will likely not be the last.

"Oh, you can bet there will be more," he said. "These groups publish their opinions, and the way it works is if people read it in enough places, they start saying, 'Hey, maybe there's something to that.' There are lots of consulting firms - Beltway Bandits in Washington hired by special interest groups out there that try to influence the BRAC process. It's big business. They take this stuff seriously. Some groups come from other states to offer their services."

State Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom said the base has nearly closed twice in recent years.

"I do know the last couple times we went through the BRAC we were real close (to being closed)," Dahlstrom said. "In fact, some people said it was a miracle we didn't get closed down."

Dahlstrom said the fall arrival of the 3rd Stryker Brigade - one of the Army's new eight-wheeled assault vehicle units - is the only thing keeping the fort from closing.

"Army officials have told me if it wasn't for the Strikers, the base would certainly be closed," she said.

State Sen. Fred Dyson said the base closure issue has become such a "political football" that the DOD decided to regulate it by forming the BRAC committee.

"We're playing for high stakes and we need to be responsible," Dyson said. "My take is that Alaska will not lose any bases."

Meyer has a different take.

"This small base does little except support the Alaska National Guard, so turn it over to the state of Alaska and move the (Non Commissioned Officer) academy and airborne battalion up to Fort Wainwright or elsewhere," he said. "Adjacent Elmendorf AFB may annex some buildings and family housing."

The state has not yet hired a consulting firm in preparation for this BRAC, but Vakalis said such groups are a good way to counter the opinions of people like Meyer.

"Communities have always tried to foster some sort of closure other than their own base," he said. "It's like anything else. If there's enough talk, people start believing it. Consulting firms help quell this talk."

Vakalis said he doubts Fort Richardson will close, but allows that it is possible.

"We have the (U.S. Sen. Ted) Stevens factor, which really helps during the BRAC. But remember, all bets are off," he said. "They could make a case tomorrow and say no. And Alaska is one of the most expensive places to maintain troops."

Fort Richardson spokesman Maj. Ben Danner said the likelihood of base closure does not concern military members.

"We continue to do our mission and let the chips fall where they may," he said. "The BRAC is a federally mandated process. We just execute policy."

Vakalis said if the decision had to do with dollars, Fort Richardson would lose.

In an email reply, Meyer said the base is of little use to the active army and in a high cost area.

"It really comes down to 'What's the main thing, money or location?'" he said. "Alaska has valuable training areas, so that is in our favor."

Reach the reporter at nzawicki@alaskastar.com